Regional Foresight
Monetary & Financial Foresight
Africa Franc Zone & European EMU

2015

The specificity of the monetary regime of the Franc Zone is probably the origin of its sustainable operation: it has preserved the Member countries of the downward trend in flows of the capitaix to Africa.

Since 1987, the Franc Zone is facing new challenges following the FF anchor in the narrow margin of the EMS exchange.
The program completion of THEUMA opens new prospects for adjustment area.
  • mechanical adjustment: this is the trend scenario where the bulk of the mechanisms of the Franc Zone remains entact.
Only exchange the base monetary tickets, room, price, balance and salaries or read ECU replaces FCFA and CF.
  • a contratstee variant where countries gain their monetary sovereignty with flexible and differentiated regimes.
  • a structural change scenario where fourteen African countries retain their monetary unit: ls accompanying measures progressively lead to ensure the convertibility of their currency.
2. the overall assessment of the impact of various scenarios of adjustment as well as sustainability in the medium and long term suggest to influence the central tendency towards a structural change of the regime by a gain of both flexibility in the exchange rate mechanism for the institutional framework for coordination...
This involves:
  • the assessment of the abilities of the franc zone, currency unions and States to anticipate the impact
  • study the feasibility of a monetary union between the 14 States;
  • the institutionalization of the meeting of the Finance Ministers by giving it a legal capacity to negotiate for all States,
  • an initiative of the EC to help the spays convert the impact of the communaiteires financing facilities and new investment projects.
Monetary policy and the contribution of the EC must be to inflichir the trend scenario of the adjustment of the regime of this zone to a more flexible regime around a structure and integrated and autonomous institutions.

Zone Franc Africa Scenarios 



Potential impact of the evolution of the European monetary system on the Member countries of the Franc Zone African financial and monetary Regime





Report submitted to ECA, 1990
Potential impact
  Overview of the situation
  The trend scenario
  A contrasting scenario: monetary sovereignty
  A scenario of structural change
  An extreme scenario 
Additional documents  
  CFA Franc Zone: Structural Analysis
  European EMU: structural analysis 


pdf

E/ECA/TRADE/91/33 synthesis report; 1991



pdf
2015


 FCFA Zone Foresight 
Full Text, 1994
I.   Introductions and thanks
II.  CFA Franc Zone: Structural analysis
III. European EMU: structural analysis
IV.  CFA Franc Zone Scenarios
V.  EMU Africa: towards a regional mandate    
      References

2015

.2015


Potrntial Impact of the Evolution of the European Monetary System on the Monetary and Financial Regime of African Franc Area Member Countries; 1990


A. Overview of the situation
B. The trend scenario
C. A contrasting scenario: monetary sovereignty
D. A scenario of structural change
 E. An extreme scenario    

                                                                                                                               Africa Franc Zone     European EMU