Global Foresight "World - Africa"; 2016
_______________About
Sams Dine Sy is a former independent international consultant, specializing in expert group management and capacity development in the following areas: global foresight, policy and project analysis, strategic planning and financial economics for research and innovation systems...
OVERWIEV
The Africa Capacitary Transformation (ACT) is a proposal for a paradigm shift and representations of the future of the world and humanity. The Global Foresight- which is indispensable and a prerequisite for the application of the ACT proposal - provides the methodological framework for specifying the major needs/requirements before constructing the scale of uncertainties and the scale of responses.
The exercise deals with the Major Requirements by separating the certainties from the uncertainties to obtain four levels of analysis:
The exercise deals with the Major Requirements by separating the certainties from the uncertainties to obtain four levels of analysis:
- Megatrends or certainties;
- Radical Uncertainties or Key Questions;
- Conflicting Issues-Actors or Uncertainties;
- Challenges-Threats and Opportunities or Consensus Uncertainties.
- Trendometrics or mega-trends data analysis;
- Scenarios/crafting & story telling;
- Visioning;
- Strategic options/profiles.
The conduct of this exercise is based on the collection and analysis of a considerable amount of data on global developments from a multi-secular perspective. Hence the need for it to be carried out through delegation to expert groups and the management of sufficiently independent and pluralist opinions. At the end of this global foresight exercise, the Master Plan for Africa's Capacitary Transformation is drawn up.
The recommended approach represents a radical and creative break with the traditional approach of scenario planning, based on policy dialogue to select strategic orientations, action plans and projects inserted in a single political cycle with predefined stages. The break concerns firstly the choice of the unit of analysis, which radically departs from the traditional Westphalian state to focus on the post-Westphalian federal state. From radical, it becomes creative to renew policy analysis as an experimental science. This renewal, however, involves penetrating the labyrinth of its currents and theories and toolboxes, mapping their genealogy, their deployment in terms of circulation and reception within continents and states.
The preparation and design of the resulting Master Plan is part of a method that propels Africa to the worldwide frontier of this experimental science within the tripolar logical diagram combining Volitive Policy Analysis (VPA), Global Foresight (GF) and Capacitary Transformation (CT). It is at this frontier that the vision of a world at peace, a stable Africa and a united humanity is embodied in the long term and that the contours of the Defixator, Scalable and Assortive Post Westphalian Federal State are outlined.
In practice this translates into the concept of Moon Shots Africa and case studies drawn from current events (Covid Analytics) and focused on the challenges (CT Analytics) such as regional integration (Federal Eco-System 2.0), corruption, mediocrity, platforming.
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Global Foresight & Capacitary Transformation
"World - Africa"
An overview of the Global Foresight exercice output
Foresight methodology
Overview
Mega trends
MEGA TRENDS
Demographic Environmental Socioeconouic
INVARIANTS
Aging Anthropocene Secular Stagnation
WILD CARDS
Workforce resources Climate shocks Inequalities
WEAK SIGNALS
Méga Trends : Key Metrics
Demographic Environmental Socio-economic
60 years + Human forcing GDP Growth
% W/m² %
2015 before 1750 before 1820
12
Vieillessement depuis 20150
Antrhopocène avant 17500
Stagnation avant 18502050 Since 2011 Since 1820
21
Vieillessement vers 20502
Antrhopocène depuis 20114
Stagnation depuis 1820
_______________About
Sams Dine Sy is a former independent international consultant, specializing in expert group management and capacity development in the following areas: global foresight, policy and project analysis, strategic planning and financial economics for research and innovation systems...
_______________To cite
The site brings together some of the work on Africa covering the fields of foresight, policy or project evaluation and design and press articles on current issues
When citing this entry, please cite the sources of the work posted on this site. This entry can be cited as follows:Sams Dine Sy - Global Foresight & Capacitary Transformation: World - Africa (online resource)
_______________Disclosure statement
Sams Dine Sy says not to be affiliated with any interest group, not wouldn't, or receive funds of a any organization that can benefit from the exercise titled:
"World - Africa:
Global Foresight and Capacitary Transformation".
"World - Africa:
Global Foresight and Capacitary Transformation".